Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1107 (N33E62)
rotated onto the disk as a simple, unipolar group. Region 1106
(S19E57) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance of C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (13 – 15
September).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 078
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01