Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 September 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods
for the next three days (13-15 September) as a coronal hole is
expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 069
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 069/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 005/007-007/007-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01