Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are no sunspots on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is expected to become slightly enhanced as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Expect occasional unsettled periods on 14 September.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Sep 066
• Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 005/005-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/10
• Minor storm 01/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01