Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Sep 2003
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
flare was a B8 from Region 456 (S07W45) at 12/2000Z. A long
duration B7 X-ray enhancement occurred at 11/2237 and was correlated
with the two disappearing solar filaments. The first DSF was five
degrees long and lifted off around 11/2100Z near S25E05. The second
DSF followed the first and was along the same inversion line. This
DSF was about ten-degrees long and lifted off near S18E15. LASCO C2
imagery indicates a partial halo CME associated with the DSF’s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed remains elevated near 600 km/s and Bz has been predominantly
northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Activity on day one and
day two is expected to be quiet to unsettled. CME effects are
possible on day three with activity expected to be at unsettled to
active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Sep 094
- Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 010/015
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/30
- Minor storm 05/05/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/35
- Minor storm 05/05/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
