Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N13E35) was
responsible for several low level C-flares and a C9/1f flare at
12/0820Z. Region 1589 continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma magnetic
classification. New region 1591 (N07E71) rotated onto the disk as a
bipolar D-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-flare
during the forecast period (13-15 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between approximately 450 and
550 km/s. Prolonged periods of southward Bz (near -5 nT) coupled
with enhanced wind speed resulted in an isolated active period
between 12/0300 – 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days
2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region
1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/05/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 122
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/008-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40