Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Two new regions were numbered today, Region 1318 (N21W03) and
Region 1319 (N08E42). Since the emergence of Region 1319, in the
vicinity of Region 1314 (N25E33), solar activity has increased with
both regions producing low level C-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(13-15 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind signatures, as measured by the ACE
spacecraft, indicated the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds peaked around 450 km/s but have
since decreased to nominal levels, around 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels for the next two
days (13-14 October). Late on day three (15 October), quiet to
unsettled levels are forecast due to the arrival of another CH HSS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 134
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01