Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 October 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
October 12, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. No flares
were detected. Region 1112 (S19E26) was quiet and stable. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (13 – 15 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as it
recovered from yesterday’s CME-driven disturbance. ACE solar wind
measurements indicated velocities were variable and ranged from 364
to 453 km/s. IMF Bz was weakly southward during most of the period
(maximum deflection -7 nT at 12/0037Z) while IMF Bt gradually
decreased from 7 nT to 5 nT as the period progressed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (13 – 15
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 075
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 010/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.