Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flare
activity occurred. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream that commenced yesterday began to gradually
subside early in the period. Velocities gradually decreased from 435
to 350 km/sec during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (13 – 14 October).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (15 October) as an equatorward extension of the northern crown
coronal hole begins to influence the field.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 070
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01