Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Oct 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1005 (N27E28) is a beta magnetic configuration and has six spots visible in white light.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. Solar wind speed as observed by ACE indicate the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. Velocities average well above 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 13-14 October. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 15 October.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Oct 070
- Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 072/072/073
- 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/037
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/05/05
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01