Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet on 13 October. Expect quiet to active levels on 14-15 October, with isolated minor storm conditions possible on 15 October, due to a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Oct 074
• Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 072/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-010/010-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/20/30
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/25/35
• Minor storm 05/15/25
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10