Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 12 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. New Region 681
(N12W09) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
conditions on 13-14 October from the effects of recurrent high-speed
solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Oct 088
• Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 009/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 015/015-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/20
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/40/30
• Minor storm 25/25/20
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05