Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Oct 2003

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Oct 12 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Only one minor
B-class flare was observed during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions possible.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Oct 098
• Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 095/100/100
• 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 010/015-015/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/30
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10