Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event of the
period was a C2.6 flare at 12/1922UTC, without a correlating optical
report.  Region 149 (N16E34) increased somewhat in size today. 
Region 139 (N08W59) remains the largest group on the visible disk,
retaining mixed polarities within its penumbral area, but appears
relatively stable and quiescent.  Two new regions were numbered
today, Regions 157 (N17E49) and 158 (S08E80).  The latter appears as
a large unipolar spot near the east limb, which may be the leader of
a larger group rotating onto the visible disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate activity. 
Regions 149 and 139 are both potential sources for isolated moderate
flares during the period.  Region 139 will rotate off the visible
disk by the end of the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with one active
period observed during 12/0900-1200 UTC.  Greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels
and exceeded event threshold today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    30/30/25
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 180
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  185/180/175
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 182

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01