Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1339 (N18W62) and 1344
(S19W59) each produced occasional low-level C-class flares. Region
1339 continued to gradually decay and was classified as a Dac-type
with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1344 continued to
show gradual intermediate spot development. It was classified as a
Dai-type with a beta magnetic configuration. No significant changes
were noted in the remaining regions. New Region 1346 (S17E64), an
Hsx-type, was numbered early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (13 – 15 November). There will be a chance for an
isolated M-class flare until Regions 1339 and 1344 depart the west
limb on 14 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A weak interplanetary shock was
detected at the ACE spacecraft at 12/0518Z, followed by a sudden
geomagnetic impulse at Earth at 12/0611Z (8 nT, Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Modest increases in wind speed and IMF Bt were
observed following the shock arrival, which likely indicated the
arrival of the halo-CME observed on 09 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 2 (13 –
14 November), followed by a decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15
November).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 40/20/10
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 169
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 165/160/155
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/01
Minor storm 02/02/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 14/14/13
Minor storm 12/12/08
Major-severe storm 08/08/02