Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
November 14, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 12 2220 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N33W24) produced today’s only event, a B1 flare at 0009Z. The group appears to be quiet and stable and apparently is no longer growing.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days. However, there continues to be just a slight chance for an isolated C-class event from 1008.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first and second days of the forecast period (13-14 November). A small increase to quiet to unsettled is expected on the third day (15 November) in response to slightly elevated solar wind velocity from a favorably positioned weak coronal hole. The presence of the elevated solar wind speed has also been indicated by observations at the STEREO-B spacecraft.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Nov 071
  • Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 001/001
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/05/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 05/05/20
  • Minor storm 01/01/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.