Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the period at quiet levels. During the latter half of 13 November, conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to occasionally active levels, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes. The elevated conditions are due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream and are expected to persist through the end of the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Nov 070
• Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 008/010-015/015-015/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/35/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/45/35
• Minor storm 15/25/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10