Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2006
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 923 (S04E21) produced three C-class flares over the past 24 hours, the largest of which was a C1.1 at 12/1046Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 923 may produce further C-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has decreased steadily to about 500 km/s. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13 – 15 November).

III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Nov 097
• Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 020/020
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01