Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Nov 12 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. A new region emerged on the disk today as a H-type sunspot group, and was numbered as Region 822 (S04E81). This region produced a long duration C2.5 flare at 12/1458 UTC, and an impulsive C9.5 event at 12/1933 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Continued C-class flares are possible from Region 822.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Nov 083
• Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 085/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 008/008-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01