Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Nov 12 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest x-ray flare of the
past day was a C3 at 12/1819 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, satellite observations suggest that this activity
occurred in Region 498 (S02W80).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The most likely source of an M-flare is at the east
limb near the returning location of old active Region 484 (N03,
L=355).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels. The
coronal hole high-speed stream continues.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods in
response to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Nov 099
- Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 115/130/145
- 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 039/051
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 025/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 025/025-025/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 50/50/30
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 60/60/60
- Minor storm 25/25/25
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10