Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 12, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 12 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest x-ray flare of the
past day was a C3 at 12/1819 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, satellite observations suggest that this activity
occurred in Region 498 (S02W80).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The most likely source of an M-flare is at the east
limb near the returning location of old active Region 484 (N03,

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels. The
coronal hole high-speed stream continues.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods in
response to a coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

  • Class M 50/50/50
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Nov 099
  • Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 115/130/145
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 039/051
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 025/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 025/025-025/030-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 50/50/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 60/60/60
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.