Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  A long duration
C7/0f event was observed at 11/2255 UTC from Region 191 (S18E25). 
An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep was observed at
12/0356 UTC.  The LASCO/SOHO imagery indicates this activity may
have originated from Region 188 (N10W61).  Region 180 (S11W82)
produced an M2/1n event at 12/1856 UTC.  A new region was numbered
today as Region 193 (S02E21).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 180 and 191 have potential to produce an
M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled with
one period of active conditions observed at high latitudes at
12/1500 UTC.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 13-14 November as a possible
result of the CME associated with the M1/1n observed 11/1620 UTC. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return on 15 November.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    80/70/50
Class X    15/10/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 178
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  175/170/175
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  020/020-015/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                60/40/15
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/50/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/05