Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. A
single C2/1F was observed at 12/1236Z. The x-ray event and flare are
likely associated with a filament which disappeared between
12/1216Z-1231Z located near N18E47.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days one through three (13-15 May). Region 1208
(N21W06) is the most likely region for activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (13-14 May).
Day three (15 May) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
slight chance for an isolated active period, late in the day. The
increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 093
Predicted 13 May-15 May 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 12 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/010-008/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01