Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Several minor B-class flares were observed today. Region 883 (S04W10) showed minimal growth. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions were due to a high speed coronal hole stream. At the time of this writing solar wind speeds have steadily decreased to approximately 550 km/sec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 May 076
• Predicted 13 May-15 May 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 12 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 021/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 018/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 010/012-005/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/01/01
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/05/01
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01