Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 May 2003

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Regions 358 (N10E23)
and 359 (S16W18) were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. The newly numbered regions pose little threat of significant
activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to a continued high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous altitude reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels for the next two
days. A significant coronal hole has moved into geoeffective
position, and promises to be a threat for at least 36 hours. Levels
should fall off to unsettled to minor storm by the third day.

III. Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May

• Class M 10/10/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 May 094
• Predicted 13 May-15 May 100/100/105
• 90 Day Mean 12 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 022/031
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 022/018
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 030/030-030/030-020/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/40/35
• Minor storm 30/30/25
• Major-severe storm 15/15/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/40/35
• Minor storm 30/30/25
• Major-severe storm 25/25/15