Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1166 (N08W52)
produced an M1/2n flare at 12/0443 and a C9/1F at 12/1527Z. Both
flares were accompanied by a Type II radio emissions and waves in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Region 1166 maintained its complex
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics and ended the period as an
Ekc type spot group. Regions 1169 (N19W22) and 1172 (N12E54) were
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (13-15 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
late on 11 March; the phi angle shifting to the positive sector at
approximately 11/2200Z. Solar wind speed at ACE rose steadily,
ending the period near 550 km/s as the coronal hole high speed
stream became geoeffective. The initially southward Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field turned mostly northward after
11/0000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the next three days under the
continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. There is a
slight chance for minor storm conditions at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 121
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 018/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 012/018-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/35
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/01