Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Mar 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
March 12, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during days 1 – 2 (13 – 14 March) with a chance for minor to major storm periods at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (15 March).

III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Mar 070
  • Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 002/003
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 012/015-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/10
  • Minor storm 10/10/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/15
  • Minor storm 20/20/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.