Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Mar 2003
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was a B8.4 flare at 12/1652 UTC from Region 306 (N05E08) as
seen in NOAA/SXI imagery. Region 306 has exhibited growth in area
coverage over the past twenty-four hours and maintains its beta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 296 (12W85), 306, and 311 (S12E05) have C-class
potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High speed stream
effects are expected on day one and day two as a recurring coronal
hole rotates into a geo-effective position. A chance of isolated
active conditions are also possible on day one and day two due to
the expected high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
- Class M 15/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Mar 138
- Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 130/125/120
- 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 007/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 20/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
