Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1506 (N11E38), 1504
(S17E28), and 1507 (S27E02) were the most active regions on the
disk. Each region was responsible for multiple C-flares during the
period. The largest of these came from Region 1506 which produced a
C2 flare at 12/0315Z. All three of these regions have shown signs
of growth. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor
storm levels were reached from 11/2100Z to 12/0300Z. This was
followed by an active period from 12/0300Z to 12/0600Z. Solar wind
observations indicated a sustained interval of negative Bz from
11/1500Z to 12/0200Z with peak values around -10nT. In addition,
the data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing starting late on
the 11th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (June 13). Quiet levels
are expected for 14-15 June.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 141
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 014/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05