Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1247 (S18W40) produced a C1 event at 12/1449Z and has decayed to a
Cao-type region while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 1250 (S27E18) has shown slight growth in areal
coverage and is now considered to have a beta-gamma classification.
All other regions on the disk remained relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (12 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. ACE spacecraft measurements indicated solar wind velocities
reached approximately 760 km/s at 12/1530Z due to a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods on day one (13 July) due to residual effects from the CH
HSS. Conditions are expected to be unsettled to active with a chance
for isolated minor storm conditions on day two (14 July) due to
effects from the CME observed on 11 July. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected to return on day three (15 July) as effects from the
CME subside.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 092
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-015/015-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01