Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 July 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
July 12, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1087 (N21E30)
produced numerous B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The
region has shown little change in spot number and areal coverage and
has a simple delta configuration in the leader spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. There is a slight chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
during the next three days (13-15 July) due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 080
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 008/008-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/20
Minor storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/50/30
Minor storm 20/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.