Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 963 (S05E15).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE has steadily declined to around 485 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13-15 July). Isolated active periods are possible on 14-15 July due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Jul 077
- Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 075/075/075
- 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 014/023
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 005/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 005/008-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 10/15/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/01