Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 963 (S05E15).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE has steadily declined to around 485 km/s at forecast issue time.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13-15 July). Isolated active periods are possible on 14-15 July due to a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Jul 077
• Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 014/023
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 005/008-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01