Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jul 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Activity was due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position late on 11 July. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 510 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Jul 071
• Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 005/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 007/010-007/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01