Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jul 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
July 12, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 12 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 12/0808 UTC from the east limb near SE08. New Region 649 (S10E76)
rotated into view near the site of the M-flare as a small C-type
sunspot group. More sunspots are likely to rotate into view within
the next 24 hours. New Region 648 (N14W08) emerged on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected and another
M-class flare is possible. The source of this activity is expected
to be the active region area at the southeast limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high-speed
stream conditions that were apparent in the ACE solar wind data
yesterday appear to be easing.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are

III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

  • Class M 20/30/40
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Jul 125
  • Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 130/135/140
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 013/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 010/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 50/50/50
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.