Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jul 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jul 12 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 12/0808 UTC from the east limb near SE08. New Region 649 (S10E76)
rotated into view near the site of the M-flare as a small C-type
sunspot group. More sunspots are likely to rotate into view within
the next 24 hours. New Region 648 (N14W08) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected and another
M-class flare is possible. The source of this activity is expected
to be the active region area at the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high-speed
stream conditions that were apparent in the ACE solar wind data
yesterday appear to be easing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
- Class M 20/30/40
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Jul 125
- Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 130/135/140
- 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 013/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 50/50/50
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
