Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jul 2003
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. A number of C-class
flares, as well as an M1.4/Sf at 12/1906UTC (with an associated Type
II radio sweep) erupted from an area on the east limb at N15. This
active region has not yet been numbered. Several large filaments in
the northwest and southwest quadrants erupted early in the period.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The active region on the east limb at N15 will most
likely continue to produce C and M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. The
increased activity is most likely due to the effects of high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm
conditions may occur on day two as a result of transient passage
from the M3.6 x-ray flare that occurred on 10 July.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Jul 122
- Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 125/120/120
- 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 036/046
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 035/048
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 024/025-030/040-024/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/45/35
- Minor storm 20/30/20
- Major-severe storm 10/15/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/35/45
- Minor storm 30/40/30
- Major-severe storm 15/25/20
