Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jul 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jul 12 2240 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2002

. . . .  Corrected Copy . . . . . .  . .

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z

to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E37)

appears to be the only flaring region on the visible disk. Multiple

minor B- and C-class flares were produced from this region today.

Magnetic complexity and spot coverage continue to show steady

growth. Region is now depicting a strong delta magnetic

configuration in the trailing portion of cluster, and remains a

beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The few remaining spotted

regions have shown little change throughout the period. No new

regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at

moderate levels. Region 30 continues to exhibit the potential for

an isolated major flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm

levels.A coronal hole in the southwest quadrant in concert with a

weak eastern flanking shock, from the partial halo CME observed on

the 07th of July, is believed to be responsible for the elevated

geomagnetic field activity.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated

active conditions are possible on day one as the effects from the

geoeffective coronal hole wane.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

Class M    70/70/70

Class X    15/15/15

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 Jul 133

Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  135/140/140

90 Day Mean        12 Jul 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  008/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  016/020

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  012/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/15/15

Minor storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/20/20

Minor storm           15/05/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01