Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 x-ray event
began at 12/0754Z, peaked at 12/1001Z, and then persisted until
12/1216Z. It is believed that the source of the event was from
beyond the East limb. A limb event CME was observed by LASCO C2/C3
and also by the STEREO coronagraphs. The event is not believed to
have a geoeffective potential.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (13-15 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active conditions on days
1-2 (13-14 January) due to coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS)
effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels for day 3
(15 January).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 117
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01