Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained very low. Region 1140 (N32W87)
and Region 1146 (N24E19) are the only spotted regions on the visible
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (13 – 15 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. An isolated
unsettled period was observed at 12/1200Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (13 January).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a
chance of isolated active levels on days two and three (14 – 15
January) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 080
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/005-007/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01