Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 January 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N28W04) produced
a C1.1 flare at 1320Z along with numerous B-class flares. Region
1040 showed little change in areal coverage (300 millionths) and was
classified as an Eao-beta group with 25 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance Region 1040 could produce an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a slight chance for isolated
unsettled periods on day one (13 January) due to the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected for
days two and three (14-15 January).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 093
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 093/093/090
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01