Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. Solar wind speeds at ACE have steadily increased through the period starting around 380 km/s at 12/0440Z and ending with speeds of 500 km/s at forecast time. The increase in velocity along with the temperature and density trends observed, is indicative of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active conditions for 13-15 January, due to continued influence of the high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Jan 076
• Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 075/075/070
• 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 012/015-008/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 20/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05