Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 12 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1.1 flare occurred at
11/2329Z from Region 718 (S07E19). Region 718 and 720 (N13E37) have
exhibited significant growth in both area and number of spots.
Region 720 increased its area from 50 millionths to 420 millionths
since the last reporting period. However, both regions still
maintain a beta magnetic structure and have been relatively quiet so
far.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity. Region 720 is the most likely
source for an M-class flare due to it continual growth.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor
storm levels occurred due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal
hole. Solar wind speed has increased from approximately 400 km/s to
700 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm levels
possible on 13 January. Quiet to active conditions are expected on
14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15
January as the high speed stream diminishes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
- Class M 30/40/40
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Jan 102
- Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 105/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 015/030
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 010/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/15
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
