Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
January 12, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 12 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels today. Regions
536 (S12W68) and 537 (N05W03) both continue to produce multiple B
and C-class flares. Region 536 continues to show a slow, steady
decay. Region 537 has shown a slight growth in penumbral coverage
and retains a complex beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure. A newly
numbered region; Region 540 (S11E76) appears to have had some minor
flare activity in the vicinity of what so far is a cluster of alpha
spots. These spots became visible earlier in the period. This
group’s proximity to the solar east limb hinders and further
analysis at the time of this writing.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 537 is remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The coronal
hole has moved beyond a geoeffective location on the solar disk.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast

III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

  • Class M 50/50/35
  • Class X 15/15/10
  • Proton 10/10/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Jan 118
  • Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 125/130/135
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 012/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 006/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.