Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jan 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 12, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jan 2003

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C6
X-ray flare at 12/1425Z was the most energetic event of the day.
Region 242 (S07W75) was the most active region on the disk,
producing frequent plage fluctuations and occasional low C-class
flares as it approaches the west limb. Minor C-class flares were
also observed in Regions 244 (S22W71) and 247 (S16W07). It became
more evident this period that Region 251 (S14E24) contained two
distinct bipoles; consequently, this region was separated with new
Region number 255 (S13E13) assigned to the large westernmost spot.
It also became clear that the trailing spots in Region 254 (S16E44)
make up a distinct bipole and were numbered as Region 256 (S17E55).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare,
primarily from Region 242.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Jan 173
  • Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 170/165/160
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/008-005/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.