Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Jan 2003
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C6
X-ray flare at 12/1425Z was the most energetic event of the day.
Region 242 (S07W75) was the most active region on the disk,
producing frequent plage fluctuations and occasional low C-class
flares as it approaches the west limb. Minor C-class flares were
also observed in Regions 244 (S22W71) and 247 (S16W07). It became
more evident this period that Region 251 (S14E24) contained two
distinct bipoles; consequently, this region was separated with new
Region number 255 (S13E13) assigned to the large westernmost spot.
It also became clear that the trailing spots in Region 254 (S16E44)
make up a distinct bipole and were numbered as Region 256 (S17E55).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare,
primarily from Region 242.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Jan 173
- Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 170/165/160
- 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/008-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/30
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
