Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
February 12, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1012 (S05E48) produced today’s only flare, a B4 at 1619Z. The event was associated with a relatively symmetrical wave that was well defined in the STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery. The remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (13-15 February).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first day (13 February) and partway through the second day (14 February). During the latter part of the second day and continuing through the third day (15 February) a favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to increase activity to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Feb 070
  • Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-010/010-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/35/35
  • Minor storm 01/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 05/35/35
  • Minor storm 01/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.