Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2008
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, due to continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of approximately 760 km/s at 11/2335Z. By the end of the summary period wind speed was close to 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible on days one and two (13 – 14 February). Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 February) as the high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Feb 072
- Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 072/072/072
- 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 016/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/30
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/35
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
