Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There are no spotted regions on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with a single active period. This active period is due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed is currently 440 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated

III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Feb 074
• Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 015/020-010/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 25/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/25
• Minor storm 35/25/20
• Major-severe storm 15/10/05