Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 12, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 12 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. X-ray flux remains
steady at background levels, with very little fluxuation. No new
regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Regions 551 (S08W68) and 554 (S10E12) may produce C-class

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Solar wind speed increased to around 700 km/s during
the period, and has been steady for the past 12 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
for a brief period today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions through 13
February, under the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream. A decrease in geomagnetic activity is
expected 14 and 15 February as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Feb 112
  • Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 110/110/110
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 12


  • V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 012/026
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/026
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 015/020-015/020-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/30/30
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/45/45
  • Minor storm 30/30/30
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.