Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2003
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. The most
significant activity during the period was a C8.7/1f that occurred
at 12/0151Z from Region 280 (S06W55). A Type II radio sweep was
associated with this event that had an estimated shock velocity of
632 km/s. LASCO imagery depicted a narrow CME and further analysis
indicates there is little chance of it becoming geoeffective.
Region 282 (N10W32) contributed to the day’s activity with lesser B
and C-class flare activity. Few changes were observed in the
remaining small and magnetically simple regions. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A single
isolated active period was observed at higher latitudes between
12/1500 to 1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Day three may experience
isolated active periods due to an anticipated favorably positioned
transequatorial coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Feb 132
- Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 130/130/130
- 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 007/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/012-006/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 01/01/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/30
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
