Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s largest event was a
C1/Sf at 0837Z from Region 1374 (S17E15). Region 1374 is currently
the largest group on the disk with an area around 150 millionths and
there is evidence for a small magnetic delta configuration in the
south part of the leading spot complex. The other regions on the
disk were quiet and stable. SDO imagery shows one or possibly two
new groups just rotating into view near the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (13-15 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (13-15 December).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 132
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 006/006-006/006-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05