Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A filament eruption
occurred in the southwest quadrant and was first observed in
STEREO-A imagery at about 12/0330Z. Coincident with the eruption was
a long duration B4 x-ray event that peaked at 12/0628Z. During the
past 24 hours, three separate CMEs were observed in LASCO C2
imagery. The first was observed departing the southwest limb at
12/0412Z. Subsequent CMEs were observed departing from the northeast
limb at 12/0524Z and from the southeast limb at 12/0612Z. The
remainder of the disk and limb was largely unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class event from Region 1131
(N31W58), for the next 3 days (13-15 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. At approximately
12/1500Z, the field became unsettled to active in response to the
arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods,
for Day 1 (13 December). A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for Days 2 and 3 (14-15 December) as the coronal hole high
speed stream departs. At this time, the three CMEs observed in the
past 24 hours are not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 089
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 090/090/088
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 007/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01