Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 978 (S06W12) has produced several low level B-class flares. The region is mostly unchanged and remains a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. A northern plage region with reverse polarity characteristics, according to GONG magnetograms, is the only other solar feature of note.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 978 remains capable of producing an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period from 12/0900-1200Z at mid-latitudes. ACE solar wind measurements indicate the continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for 13-15 December.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 Dec 094
• Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 009/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01