Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Dec 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S06W21) only produced B-class activity, however, it remains a complex beta gamma delta magnetic group. This region has increased in area to approximately 680 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for M-flare activity from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods. Activity was due to enhanced solar wind speeds coupled with prolonged periods of southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton event crossed below 10 pfu’s at 12/1040 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 13 December. On 14 December, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active periods possible. On 15 December, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 10/10/10
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 12 Dec 102
- Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 100/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 011/015
- Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 012/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/15
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/30/15
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
